The mastermind behind ARC Raiders’ success predicted the collapse of the AAA games industry

06.12.2025 Comment Views: 17

Owen Mahoney, who oversaw the acquisition of Embark—the studio behind ARC Raiders—warns that the AAA industry is headed for an inevitable end.

In a conversation with The Game Business, the former Nexon chief spoke bluntly:

The AAA segment is structurally nearing its end. Without a substantial overhaul of how games are developed, we’re facing an even larger disaster.

Mahoney points to the core problem — executives at billion-dollar companies are terrified of risk, opting for tried-and-true formulas instead of bold innovation.

When you run a $23 billion company and approve a project that fails, you have to explain to the board why you’ve burned $300 million. You effectively have room for only one mistake.

According to him, that caution breeds failure because players demand novelty. He points to Minecraft and Clash Royale as examples of games that succeeded and overturned long-held industry assumptions.

While leading Nexon, he moved to buy Embark in 2021 despite investor objections, sensing the potential in a team of former Battlefield developers. ARC Raiders found success thanks to Mahoney’s support, even though the game launched after he had left the company.

Developers are forced to choose between working independently with financial risk or joining the production line of large AAA studios.