Steam Analyst Debunked the Myth About Wishlists

Developers often place too much trust in Steam wishlists, treating them as reliable forecasts of future sales. Analysts, however, say that a game’s real success is shaped by other factors.

The “Add to Wishlist” feature on the largest PC storefront is frequently viewed as a measure of interest. When hundreds of thousands of users hit “Add to Wishlist,” it can look like a clear sign that a title is poised for commercial success.

That perception was bolstered by cases such as Baldur’s Gate 3, Cyberpunk 2077 and Hollow Knight: Silksong — titles that lingered near the top of wishlists for years and eventually sold millions. But a Video Game Insights report found little correlation between wishlist counts and actual sales performance.

• Only 6% of games on Steam reach 100,000 wishlists before launch — and it’s mostly those that go on to post strong sales;
• Most releases attract fewer than 10,000 wishlist adds;
• Only 9% of projects outperform their wishlist numbers in sales during the first month after release.

Eden Chen, CEO of the Pragma platform, argues that wishlists shouldn’t be the primary yardstick for success, especially for indie studios. According to him, a single click to “add” often reflects fleeting curiosity rather than a concrete intent to purchase.

Developers would do better to measure community engagement — activity on Reddit and Discord, and the quality of feedback from playtests. A small, committed audience is far more valuable and predictive than thousands of casual clicks.

Source: iXBT.games