NAND costs set to drop drastically as analysts warn of oversupply

An analyst on the Flash Memory Summit believes we’re headed for a flash oversupply that may inevitably find yourself in tears. A shockwave of NAND worth drops will reportedly hit all the SSD trade over the following 12 months, and this might end in 64-layer 3D NAND costs dropping to document lows of $0.08/GB – a far cry from the state of play because the SSD market stands in the present day.

At the Flash Memory Summit final week, Objective Analysis’s Jim Handy instructed attendees that the SSD market was cruising in the direction of a worth crash. The burgeoning NAND flash market, nonetheless rising exponentially yearly, is about to finally settle at a a lot decrease price than the present market worth.

There are additionally new applied sciences getting into the market that may even attribute to cheaper SSD drives within the near-future. While not as speedy or dependable as SLC drives, QLC has now launched into the consumer PC market. These four-bit drives enable for increased capacities per 3D NAND chip at cheaper price in comparison with different cell storage approaches, and they’re touted because the lacking hyperlink between gradual spinning platter HDDs and super-speedy SSDs. Intel’s 660p is the primary consumer-facing QLC drive to reach, however extra are set to observe earlier than the tip of the 12 months.

The analysts’ reviews, through The Register, additionally define that Seagate, nonetheless closely reliant on high-capacity disk drive gross sales, will probably run into hassle down the road if its efforts to maneuver in the direction of NAND flash don’t pan out.

The SSD market appears to be quickly shifting in the direction of completely eclipsing HDDs altogether, even in purposes that high-capacity platter drives had been beforehand unbeatable in. Despite SSDs dominance within the gaming house, HDDs are nonetheless the storage technique of selection for large knowledge centres and chilly storage, to whom pace isn’t every little thing and worth reigns supreme.

While price per GB within the NAND world is likely to be slipping, shopper pricing may take somewhat longer to get the message. The high NAND producers’ market stranglehold should first slip earlier than costs sway in favour of PC builders and avid gamers. There’s additionally different componentry, equivalent to high-performance controllers, that must be accounted for in SSD pricing – however no less than there’s some critical competitors to maintain the market shifting in the best route.