I’ve obtained the concern. I wish to be super-excited in regards to the new AMD Navi graphics playing cards – a brand new mainstream 7nm GPU building on the success of the excellent Polaris vary needs to be nice – however all the things I’m listening to proper now fills me with a form of silicon-based existential dread. Specifically in regards to the joint launch of the Navi GPUs alongside their AMD Ryzen 3000 CPU cousins.
The newest launch date rumours floating across the intermawebs have each of AMD’s new 7nm GPUs and CPUs launching on July 7, after an announcement at Computex which reveals them to the world. I perceive the will to have this romantic 7/7 launch date; it pairs so properly with the launch of two completely different 7nm merchandise. And it additionally chimes with the sooner February 7 launch of its Radeon VII GPU. I get it. But it simply seems like an extremely harmful factor to do if you wish to have a good quantity of those, seemingly extremely standard, merchandise at launch.
If AMD does find yourself launching each the Ryzen 3000 processors and Navi graphics playing cards on July 7 you then’re going to need to be damned fast to snap up any of the few new mainstream GPUs that do attain retail, as a result of the crimson staff is definitely going to prioritise the CPU facet of the enterprise.
The 7nm manufacturing course of remains to be in its infancy actually. Sure, it’s nominally been round for a yr or so in quantity manufacturing, and we’re even seeing AMD’s contract fab, TSMC, transferring on to 7nm EUV this yr, however there may be nonetheless going to be a restrict on the quantity of 7nm silicon TSMC can realistically produce for AMD earlier than July.
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It has different shoppers too – AMD will not be the be-all-and-end-all of 7nm manufacturing. Apple and best-buds Huawei are 7nm shoppers of TSMC, and so is the Qualcomm cellular chip large too. Those three are going to take up a good quantity of producing capability themselves. And they’re not TSMC’s solely prospects, with the corporate seeking to signal ever extra shoppers up for its newest node.
So, with AMD aiming to have TSMC manufacturing the vanguard of each its Ryzen 3000 and Navi ranges, it’s going to be fascinating to see how a lot inventory is definitely on the cabinets round launch. AMD might take the same strategy to the discharge of its Ryzen 2nd Gen chips, and have the highest Ryzen 5 and Ryzen 7 CPUs accessible at launch – the 3600X and 3700X if you’ll – which might create lots of demand on their very own.
Launch a brand new mainstream GPU on the similar time and there’s sure to be hassle. AMD doesn’t have a terrific monitor report of sustaining lots of accessible graphics card inventory round launch, and it wouldn’t be an enormous shock if the Navi GPUs have been in extremely restricted provide going side-by-side with Ryzen. The authentic Vega playing cards have been fairly conspicuous by their absence post-release, and the very same state of affairs is taking part in out with the Radeon VII GPUs proper now too. And in each instances that has result in the retailers elevating the costs of the graphics playing cards in response to the shortage of inventory and the relative demand.
If you’ll find a Radeon VII truly on sale it may be wherever between $880 and $1,100. Considering the launch worth of $700 that’s a hell of a markup in lower than a month, and doesn’t breed lots of confidence within the Vega playing cards having the ability to preserve a good mainstream price ticket in the event that they’re within the kind of restricted provide I’m fearing.
There is an effective probability that the July 7 joint release rumour is simply fanciful guesswork, primarily based on how completely the date and subject material would match. In the article linked above the author does additionally say their supply is much less satisfied in regards to the Navi launch, provided that “AMD is under pressure from TSMC’s manufacturing capabilities.” There was one other hearsay, simply earlier than the 7/7 noises, which recommended that AMD can be delaying the Navi launch to October on the earliest. The rationale once more being that TSMC doesn’t have the manufacturing capability to have the ability to present each 7nm CPUs and GPUs on the similar time.
And TSMC has additionally been placing itself below stress not too long ago, with some dodgy contaminated supplies screwing up some 12/14nm production, and a virus doing the identical factor final yr. I perceive these weren’t within the 7nm fabs, but when one thing surprising have been to occur at these treasured amenities too whose contract manufacturing would that have an effect on? You can guess it wouldn’t impression Apple…
AMD had wished a Q1 launch, or so my sources have informed me, however I believed an early summer season launch can be okay too. Now it might be {that a} mid-summer launch would possibly depart Navi pricing and inventory ranges compromised. Which leads me to the horribly uncomfortable conclusion that I would truly need AMD to delay the launch of Navi.
I by no means thought I’d say that, and it’s most likely not one thing the crimson staff desires to do with the approaching launch of the GTX 1660 Ti more likely to take a piece out of the final Polaris gross sales of this era, but when we truly wish to have new mainstream 7nm GPUs accessible at launch a July 7 launch date could be asking an excessive amount of.
Maybe TSMC does have the manufacturing capabilities to provide all the required 7nm CPUs and GPUs within the subsequent 4 and a bit months. But it does really feel like a little bit of a threat taking a look at it from the skin.
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