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By the time you tune into the Grammys on Sunday night, most of the following awards will have been given out hours earlier, at the pre-show. That’s where the bulk of the genre categories live, along with many of the more interesting wins: the first-timers, the underdogs, the standard-bearers. In that spirit, the following predictions include not only the major categories but also a bunch that often don’t get the attention they deserve. Here’s our rundown of who will win and who should win. The Grammys air this Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on CBS.
Album of the Year
- Jon Batiste – We Are
- Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga – Love for Sale
- Justin Bieber – Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe)
- Doja Cat – Planet Her (Deluxe)
- Billie Eilish – Happier Than Ever
- H.E.R. – Back of My Mind
- Lil Nas X – Montero
- Olivia Rodrigo – Sour
- Taylor Swift – Evermore
- Kanye West – Donda
Will win: Olivia Rodrigo – Sour
Should win: Olivia Rodrigo – Sour
Olivia Rodrigo, who turned 19 in February, is the second-youngest artist to be nominated across each of the Grammys’ Big Four categories. The first? A 17-year-old Billie Eilish in 2020. Eilish, of course, managed a surprise grand slam, taking home all four statuettes, including the coveted Album of the Year. Rodrigo is another slightly left-of-center pop singer-songwriter whose roundly acclaimed debut album, Sour, already cleaned up at earlier awards shows. Look for her to add an AOTY Grammy to her growing trophy collection. (A rare but possible upset would most likely come from one of the category’s last two winners, Eilish and Swift.) The Grammys’ shortlist leaves off plenty of albums that were (ahem) quantifiably better, but when it comes to mainstream pop, Rodrigo has been past your house, to the White House, and back. It was her year, and Sour makes sense as Grammy voters’ Album of the Year. –Marc Hogan
Record of the Year
- ABBA – “I Still Have Faith in You”
- Jon Batiste – “Freedom”
- Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga – “I Get a Kick Out of You”
- Justin Bieber – “Peaches” [ft. Daniel Cesar and Giveon]
- Brandi Carlile – “Right on Time”
- Doja Cat – “Kiss Me More” [ft. SZA]
- Billie Eilish – “Happier Than Ever”
- Lil Nas X – “Montero (Call Me by Your Name)”
- Olivia Rodrigo – “Drivers License”
- Silk Sonic – “Leave the Door Open”
Will win: Olivia Rodrigo – “Drivers License”
Should win: Olivia Rodrigo – “Drivers License”
The wide field of Record of the Year nominees can’t obscure the obvious choice: The world-conquering “Drivers License,” one of the most memorable debut singles in recent pop history. For the Grammys, it’s an opportunity to stack another crown on a teen-pop phenomenon whose stardom is already secured, and to send this Best New Artist nominee, first-time Grammys attendee, and confirmed telecast performer home with an armload of trophies. “Drivers License” could represent a happy medium for voters aware that Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga singing standards (again) is a fusty choice, but perhaps they’re still not ready to hand one of the night’s biggest awards to a raunchy mischief-maker like Lil Nas X. Plus, there’s the spiritual influence of Academy darling Taylor Swift—the Grammys love nothing more than to prove themselves right in the long run. –Anna Gaca
Song of the Year
- Ed Sheeran – “Bad Habits”
- Alicia Keys & Brandi Carlile – “A Beautiful Noise”
- Olivia Rodrigo – “Drivers License”
- H.E.R. – “Fight for You”
- Billie Eilish – “Happier Than Ever”
- Doja Cat – “Kiss Me More” [ft. SZA]
- Silk Sonic – “Leave the Door Open”
- Lil Nas X – “Montero (Call Me by Your Name)”
- Justin Bieber – “Peaches” [ft. Daniel Caesar and Giveon]
- Brandi Carlile – “Right on Time”
Will win: Silk Sonic – “Leave the Door Open”
Should win: Silk Sonic – “Leave the Door Open”
Ed Sheeran’s inescapable, infinitely derivative “Bad Habits.” Justin Bieber rhyming “shit” with “shit.” Last year’s Record and Song of the Year winners Billie Eilish and H.E.R., respectively. A perfectly fine Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile duet from a 2020 CBS election special that’s essentially an inside job by network television. Then Brandi Carlile again—not to mention a second consecutive round of nominations for Doja Cat collaborator Dr. Luke, just four years after the Grammys’ big #MeToo moment. Could the nominees for best songwriting be any less imaginative?
Fortunately, there’s a clear consensus pick: With their faithful Motown stylings, tastefully sexual humor, and sheer Bruno Mars-iness, Silk Sonic looked like future Grammy winners from the very beginning. If Olivia Rodrigo doesn’t sweep the song categories, look for voters to take this opportunity to mark another milestone on Mars’ long journey to the Lifetime Achievement Award. It’s a great night to be Anderson .Paak. –Anna Gaca
Best New Artist
- Arooj Aftab
- Jimmie Allen
- Baby Keem
- Finneas
- Glass Animals
- Japanese Breakfast
- The Kid Laroi
- Arlo Parks
- Olivia Rodrigo
- Saweetie
Will win: Olivia Rodrigo
Should win: Japanese Breakfast
Like the other Big Four awards, Best New Artist has expanded from eight to 10 nominees this year. The category is intended to highlight musicians who have recently released recordings that establish their public identity. This gives the Grammys some wiggle room to make up for past oversights, but fails to explain why Finneas, who has already won eight Grammys, is here. The other nominees are more fitting, though these being the only nods for Glass Animals, the Kid Laroi, and Jimmie Allen leads me to believe we’ll be seeing more from them at future Grammys. Saweetie and Baby Keem had the kind of breakout rap hits that Grammy voters value, while dark-horse contender Japanese Breakfast had the kind of 2021 that indie artists dream of. But it seems inevitable that out of all of her nominations, this one will go home with Olivia Rodrigo. Maybe you’ve heard of her, she recently got her driver’s license. –Quinn Moreland
Best Rock Song
- Weezer – “All My Favorite Songs”
- Kings of Leon – “The Bandit”
- Mammoth WVH – “Distance”
- Paul McCartney – “Find My Way”
- Foo Fighters – “Waiting on a War”
Will win: Foo Fighters – “Waiting on a War”
Should win: Paul McCartney – “Find My Way”
The nominations for Best Rock Song suggest that “rock” is once again a legacy genre in the eyes of the Grammys. So ideally the winner should be the legacy-est rock artist on the list, Sir Paul McCartney, whose “Find My Way,” from 2020’s McCartney III, also happens to be the liveliest, most whimsical track here. The category’s recent winners have been surprisingly modern—St. Vincent in 2019, and Brittany Howard besting Fiona Apple, Phoebe Bridgers, Big Thief, and Tame Impala for the 2021 trophy—but it’s hard to have much hope for whimsy carrying the day, even when served up by a Beatle. With 12 awards to their name and a nomination lock across the Rock categories, Foo Fighters might be the more natural choice, and one with added significance given the recent passing of beloved drummer Taylor Hawkins. –Marc Hogan
Best Alternative Music Album
- Fleet Foxes – Shore
- Halsey – If I Can’t Have Love, I Want Power
- Japanese Breakfast – Jubilee
- Arlo Parks – Collapsed in Sunbeams
- St. Vincent – Daddy’s Home
Will win: Japanese Breakfast – Jubilee
Should win: Japanese Breakfast – Jubilee
While this year’s Rock categories regressed back to major dudedom, Best Alternative Music Album continues to feel like a realm that’s mostly in touch with reality. There’s a lot to like here, from Fleet Foxes’ comeback to Arlo Parks’ debut. St. Vincent won the award in 2015 for her self-titled album and was nominated in 2019 for Masseducation—perhaps she will win again for the retro sleaze of Daddy’s Home. Pop star Halsey has a decent chance of taking the cake with If I Can’t Have Love, I Want Power; their only nomination of the night is for an album produced and inspired by no less an alternative icon than Trent Reznor. But I’m choosing to believe that the Academy, having recognized Japanese Breakfast as a Best New Artist (!), will do the right thing and recognize Jubilee as the leap forward that it is. –Quinn Moreland
Best Rap Song
- DMX – “Bath Salts” [ft. Jay-Z and Nas]
- Saweetie – “Best Friend” [ft. Doja Cat]
- Baby Keem – “Family Ties” [ft. Kendrick Lamar]
- Kanye West – “Jail” [ft. Jay-Z]
- J. Cole – “My Life” [ft. 21 Savage and Morray]
Will win: Baby Keem – “Family Ties” [ft. Kendrick Lamar]Should win: Baby Keem – “Family Ties” [ft. Kendrick Lamar]
Kendrick Lamar breaking out more voices than Mel Blanc deserves a special award of its own, but Best Rap Song will have to do. “Family Ties” was a refreshing addition to the rap zeitgeist: Amid sudden beat switch-ups, Baby Keem and his older cousin Kendrick zig-zag with reckless abandon. It might be too weird to win, but Lamar’s risks are generally accepted by the establishment at this point. While a symbolic win for DMX, or a nod to the dominance of Saweetie and Doja Cat’s “Best Friend” could be in the cards, this category is the 13-time Grammy winner (and his protege)’s to lose. –Alphonse Pierre
Best Rap Album
- J. Cole – The Off-Season
- Nas – King’s Disease II
- Tyler, the Creator – Call Me If You Get Lost
- Kanye West – Donda
Will win: Kanye West – Donda
Should win: Tyler, the Creator – Call Me If You Get Lost
Back in 2020, Tyler, the Creator’s Igor rightfully won the Grammy for Best Rap Album. It should happen again in 2022, for the equally ambitious Call Me If You Get Lost, but I have little faith in the institution. The big difference between 2020 and 2022 for Tyler: His fellow nominees represent a completely different beast this year. When he won last time, he beat Cordae, Meek Mill, 21 Savage, and a Dreamville compilation, but in 2022 his fight is with legacies: Nas, Kanye, Cole. (Drake would be there too if he hadn’t withdrawn the nomination for Certified Lover Boy.) Expect the Grammys to revert back to their comfort zone, like they always seem to do. –Alphonse Pierre
Best R&B Album
- Snoh Aalegra – Temporary Highs in the Violet Skies
- Jon Batiste – We Are
- Leon Bridges – Gold-Diggers Sound
- H.E.R. – Back of My Mind
- Jazmine Sullivan – Heaux Tales
Will win: H.E.R. – Back of My Mind
Should win: Jazmine Sullivan – Heaux Tales
The clear powerhouse in this category is Jazmine Sullivan, who’s been an unsung fortress in R&B for years. And yet, it’s almost foolish to bet against H.E.R. Even before she crept from beneath her shades, she’s been an Academy favorite: 21 (!) nominations and four wins in the past three years, including 2021’s Song of the Year. Jon Batiste and Leon Bridges could easily bait voters with their throwback sounds. Snoh Aalegra is a viable wild card. But H.E.R. is the obvious frontrunner, having already won Best R&B Album in 2019 with a compilation project. Even though her debut album arrived as more of a simmer than a boil last year, it’s hard to imagine her not taking home another trophy. Still, the case for Jazmine is that she’s having a moment, and she’s the only artist in this category whose album became a legitimate conversation piece. There’s a path for her to swoop in with a win that would cap off a glorious run. –Clover Hope
Best Pop Vocal Album
- Justin Bieber – Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe)
- Doja Cat – Planet Her (Deluxe)
- Billie Eilish – Happier Than Ever
- Ariana Grande – Positions
- Olivia Rodrigo – Sour
Will win: Billie Eilish – Happier Than Ever
Should win: Billie Eilish – Happier Than Ever
The competition is stiff in the Best Pop Vocal Album category, with four out of the five nominees also up for Album of the Year. Justin Bieber has been nominated for this award three times since 2011; I doubt this will be his year, and I pity whoever has to say Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe) on live television. Doja Cat stands a healthy chance, as does Olivia Rodrigo, depending on how her presumed sweep pans out. But in all likelihood, the award will go to a previous recipient. Ariana is the category’s grande dame—this is her fifth nomination, and Sweetener won in 2019—and her exclusion from AOTY could indicate some genre-category love (a Grammys special). However, it seems safe to say that this is Billie Eilish’s award. She snagged it back in 2020 and, with seven nominations this year, this could be her consolation prize in the year of Olivia. –Quinn Moreland
Best Dance/Electronic Album
- Black Coffee – Subconsciously
- Illenium – Fallen Embers
- Major Lazer – Music Is the Weapon (Reloaded)
- Marshmello – Shockwave
- Sylvan Esso – Free Love
- Ten City – Judgement
Will win: Black Coffee – Subconsciously
Should win: Sylvan Esso – Free Love
The Grammys’ Dance/Electronic nominees often telegraph serious “How do you do, fellow kids?” vibes—surely the only reason Baauer’s Planet’s Mad snuck onto last year’s list is that someone on the nominating committee vaguely remembered his nephew’s Webelos troop once doing a “Harlem Shake” video. But occasional surprises do sneak into the nominations, like Arca’s ambitious KiCk I in 2021, or SOPHIE’s genuinely radical OIL OF EVERY PEARL’S UN-INSIDES in 2019. Sadly, there’s nothing quite as striking in this year’s list of contenders. Featuring everyone from Sia to J Balvin to Marcus Mumford, Major Lazer’s Music Is the Weapon (Reloaded) is the Epcot Center of Latin and Caribbean pop; Illenium’s Fallen Embers is EDM for people who think that what EDM really needs is more Imagine Dragons; and Shockwave is the PG-13 complement to Marshmello’s kid-centric business empire. It would be great to see the trophy go to Durham duo Sylvan Esso’s winsome electronic pop, which is as appealing as it is experimental. A likelier scenario hands the victory to South African house pioneer Black Coffee—he’s got name recognition, an inspirational backstory (the world-famous DJ lost the use of his left arm in 1990), and powerhouse features (Pharrell, Usher)—or veteran Chicago house/R&B group Ten City, who returned after a 25-year hiatus with a timeless take on classic deep house. As long as Marshmello doesn’t take home the trophy, we all win. –Philip Sherburne
Best Country Song
- Maren Morris – “Better Than We Found It”
- Kacey Musgraves – “Camera Roll”
- Chris Stapleton – “Cold”
- Thomas Rhett – “Country Again”
- Walker Hayes – “Fancy Like”
- Mickey Guyton – “Remember Her Name”
Will win: Mickey Guyton – “Remember Her Name”
Should win: Mickey Guyton – “Remember Her Name”
Mickey Guyton didn’t win any awards the last time she appeared at the Grammys, but her very presence felt like a crowning achievement. In March 2021, she stood on stage as the first Black woman ever to be nominated for a solo country performance, and since then, she’s appeared everywhere from a Metallica tribute album to the Super Bowl. A year after her breakout Grammys performance, the booming title track from her debut album—a showcase for her wildly impressive vocals and her knack for choruses that stick like catchphrases—seems like a shoe-in. Add to it that her biggest competition is the quietest song from an album the Academy isn’t even sure qualifies as country music, and it’s hard to imagine anything standing in her way. –Sam Sodomsky
Best Global Music Performance
- Arooj Aftab – “Mohabbat”
- Angélique Kidjo & Burna Boy – “Do Yourself”
- Femi Kuti – “Pà Pá Pà”
- Yo-Yo Ma & Angélique Kidjo – “Blewu”
- Wizkid – “Essence” [ft. Tems]
Will win: Yo-Yo Ma & Angélique Kidjo – “Blewu”
Should win: Wizkid – “Essence” [ft. Tems]
This year, the Grammys expanded its consideration of “global” music by adding a song category, Best Global Music Performance, in addition to its album award. The nominees only reaffirm how the “global” designation is both silly and offensive, siloing non-white, non-Western artists into their own box. Isn’t the goal of all popular music to travel beyond borders? Heralded by the Academy as “Pakistan’s first female Grammy nominee” Arooj Aftab was chosen for her gorgeous interpretation of an old Urdu ghazal, “Mohabbat,” but as she’s already pointed out, she’s spent more time in the U.S. than the South Asian country. Nigerian stars Wizkid and Tems got a nod for “Essence,” which, as a certified banger and a Top-10 hit on the Hot 100, should have just been nominated for Record or Song of the Year. With its Afrobeats-R&B hybrid, “Essence” helped chart a new future in pop music, and it would make a more-than-worthy winner. But the Recording Academy might play it safe and stick to those they’ve long celebrated; 61-year-old Beninese star and double-nominee Angélique Kidjo, after all, is tied for most wins in the Best Global Album category. –Cat Zhang
Best Música Urbana Album
- Rauw Alejandro – Afrodisíaco
- Bad Bunny – El Último Tour del Mundo
- J Balvin – Jose
- Karol G – KG0516
- Kali Uchis – Sin Miedo (Del Amor y Otros Demonios) ∞
Will win: Bad Bunny – El Último Tour del Mundo
Should win: Bad Bunny – El Último Tour del Mundo
The existence of the Latin Grammys has long made the Latin categories at the main show feel like an afterthought: essentially, the Latin music the rest of the industry felt compelled to acknowledge. This explains the puzzling pool of nominees for the inaugural Best Música Urbana Album award. Rauw Alejandro’s Afrodisíaco is a decent early effort from the ascendant singer and dancer, but it came out in 2020, and feels ancient in the wake of his two latest projects, Vice Versa and Trap Cake, Vol. 2. J Balvin has been nominated every year since 2019 but has yet to bring home his first non-Latin Grammy. His latest LP Jose did well enough commercially, but its biggest cultural impact—the controversy over the video for his dembow collaboration with Tokischa—was negative. Kali Uchis’ nomination—for her first Spanish language LP—is the category’s most interesting option, but there’s little connecting her alt-R&B to “Musica Urbana.” And it’s nice to see another woman nominated, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a more milquetoast trap-and-reggaetón record than Karol G’s KG0516. The predominant favorite here has to be Bad Bunny, whose El Último Tour del Mundo was the capstone of an incredible 2020 that began with YHLQMDLG (which earned him his first Grammy last year) and ended with the first Spanish-language album to debut at No. 1. More than a year after its release, El Último Tour del Mundo continues to keep Benito planted firmly atop the Spotify streaming charts. It’s also the most daring record nominated in the category, taking a hard left turn from reggaetón and trap to post-punk and rock en Español—sounds that few in his sphere even dare to touch. –Matthew Ismael Ruiz
Producer of the Year, Non-Classical
- Jack Antonoff
- Rogét Chahayed
- Mike Elizondo
- Hit-Boy
- Ricky Reed
Will win: Jack Antonoff
Should win: Jack Antonoff
